I have found the following simple but powerful exercise from a .pdf document, entitled 'Radical Times Require Radical Actions', which eventually became the basis of the book, 'Radical Action for Radical Times', by consultant Jonathan Hornby.
The exercise has its origins from futurist Joel Arthur Barker's 'Implications Wheel' methodology [involving the use of his proprietary software, known as I-Wheel], which has been designed to help organisations to explore in-depth all the "unintended consequences" & "black swans" in their executive decision making processes. JAB calls it "cascade thinking".
"Put your decision or idea [about a trend, event, innovation, policy change or new policy, change, goal] in the middle of a sheet of paper.
Involve five to ten others.
Ask the question, “What could happen just as soon as we implement this decision or idea?”
Draw off 12 radial spokes from the circle and capture answers in rapid fire.
Get at least one positive and one negative outcome.
Repeat the process for each of the 12, only this time draw 5 outcomes for each.
Repeat the process one more time. You now have 300 potential outcomes.
How will you leverage opportunities or mitigate threats revealed?"
[Source: 'Radical Times Require Radical Actions', by consultant Jonathan Hornby; The .pdf document also shares eleven interesting ideas - & two provoking self-check questions - on how to find opportunities in a down economy. You may have to register first in order to access the document.
Actually, a more elaborate explanation of the "cascade thinking" process can be found in the author's book, 'Radical Action for Radical Times'.
More information about the thinking & the work of Joel Arthur Barker can be found at this link to the Global Dialogue Centre.]
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