"Genius is in-born, may it never be still-born."

"Oysters, irritated by grains of sand, give birth to pearls. Brains, irritated by curiosity, give birth to ideas."

"Brainpower is the bridge to the future; it is what transports you from wishful thinking to willful doing."

"Unless you keep learning & growing, the status quo has no status."

Thursday, August 13, 2009


[continued from the Last Post.]

Step 3: Driving Forces in the Macro Environment

Nothing emerges from nothing. There are primal driving forces in the macro-environment, behind the micro-environmental forces referred to above.

Major outcomes can emanate from minor beginnings: some of these forces are ‘predetermined’ (e.g. population increase on our planet, over the next 30 years, or the decrease in availability of affordable fossil fuels), and some are highly uncertain (e.g. the advent of nuclear fusion to solve our energy needs, a huge asteroid colliding with our planet, or peace amongst all peoples across the globe).

Of prime importance is the knowledge of “what is inevitable and necessary and what is unpredictable and still a matter of choice.”

Instead of ruing one’s fate with a litany of regrets: “If only…”, “What bad luck…”, and “Why me?” we should seek and spot major trends and crucial trend breaks in order to be better prepared for the future.

This is the most research-intensive step in the process.

Step 4: Gauge the Data, Rank your Findings

In order to extract clarity from the accumulated data, create a matrix to rank (prioritise) the key factors and driving trends, on the basis of two criteria:

(1) the degree of importance for the success of the focal issue identified in Step 1

(2) the degree of uncertainty surrounding the factors and trends associated with the focal issue. Aim to identify the few factors or trends that are most important and most uncertain.

Lifescapes will never differ over predetermined elements like the inevitable aging of a chosen population, because predetermined elements are bound to be the same in all scripts, stories, and strategies.

[To be continued in the Next Post. All images in this post are the intellectual property of Dilip Mukerjea.]

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