Peter Schwartz, an internationally renowned futurist and business strategist, and cofounder of the Global Business Network (GBN) has written a simple, short and easy-to-understand article, 'Winning in an Uncertain Future through Scenario Planning'.
Prior to founding GBN, he served as head of scenario planning at the Royal Dutch/Shell Company, and is the author of “The Art of the Long View”, which is often considered a bible on scenario planning.
As I have mentioned earlier in this weblog, the Royal Dutch Shell Company's pioneering and successful application of scenario planning before the Middle East oil crisis of the mid-1970's was a great business example of strategic preparedness.
The oil embargo caught most oil companies by surprise, but Shell had already considered the impact of an increase in oil price as a possible future scenario, and thought of the actions they should take if it happened. By practicing this scenario planning methodology, they managed to avoid the worst shocks.
Shell even emerged after the oil crisis as the strongest player in the field.
Here's the link to the article.
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